Brazil's licensed betting sector in limbo after Lula wins fourth term, with Congress holding the key

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has been declared the winner of Brazil's presidential runoff, securing a fourth term. The result passes the fate of the country's regulated betting market to Congress, according to analysis from SBC's iGaming Daily podcast.

Lula defeated Liberal Party challenger Flávio Bolsonaro by roughly four million votes, reversing polls that had shown him behind. SBC Notícias Brazil Editor Leonardo Biazzi said the president rallied supporters through WhatsApp groups and street demonstrations. Lula added about 11 million votes compared with the first round, while Bolsonaro gained only three million. SBC Editor-at-Large Ted Menmuir argued the outcome was not a true upset, suggesting that odds against Lula had been inflated by bets placed on foreign platforms that lack detailed insight into Brazil.

Menmuir described the re-election as the "final death sentencing" of the Bets regime. Lula's provisional measure of 25 September effectively shut down Brazil's legalised betting industry overnight. Congress can alter, amend or reject the measure within 120 days of its introduction. Biazzi said betting was not mentioned in Lula's victory speech in Sao Paulo, although days earlier the president had repeated that operators would not return.

The other possible route for the industry is the Supreme Court, which could declare the measure unconstitutional. Biazzi cautioned, however, that reinstating licences would be a harder and slower process. Menmuir summed up the situation by saying Brazil is in a "zombie state" for online gambling.

Biazzi also noted that damage to operator confidence in the region has already occurred, and some companies will not come back whatever the government eventually decides. Attention now moves to Congress, where nearly 100 proposals to amend the provisional measure have been filed. Many of them would restore sportsbooks while keeping online casinos prohibited.

Lula lacks a majority in both the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies. Biazzi said, though, that many newly elected lawmakers oppose gambling on evangelical grounds, which could give the president support extending beyond party lines.