Brazil first round: anti-betting stance brought candidates few electoral gains after Lula's online betting ban

Candidates who made opposition to online betting a campaign theme in Brazil's first-round elections largely failed to turn it into votes, according to an analysis of the results. Several supporters of betting restrictions were defeated or finished far behind, in races from Rio de Janeiro to Rio Grande do Sul.

The ban came on September 25, when President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva signed Provisional Measure No. 1,394/2026, just nine days before the vote. Candidates in several states took up the subject during the final week of campaigning, but the results showed no clear link between backing restrictions and electoral performance.

Rio de Janeiro offered the clearest example. PSD candidate Eduardo Paes pledged to close the state lottery company Loterj and blamed the Bolsonaro government for creating a betting paradise. Datafolha's pre-election poll had given him 46% of valid votes against 38% for Douglas Ruas of the PL. After a recount, and after the Electoral Court invalidated Anthony Garotinho's candidacy and annulled his 274,411 votes, Ruas finished with 50.88% and Paes with 44.16%.

Other states showed a similar pattern. In Minas Gerais, Patrus Ananias of the PT, who called the ban a new beginning for families, took about 26%, while Governor Mateus Simões of the PSD, who had limited gambling adverts in stadiums, received under 5%. Cleitinho Azevedo, who largely avoided the topic, led with about 55%. In Rio Grande do Sul, Juliana Brizola of the PDT won about 32% after campaigning for the measure, while Luciano Zucco of the PL, who called it a clear act of electoral desperation, won about 58%. There were exceptions: Jerônimo Rodrigues in Bahia and Raquel Lyra in Pernambuco, both supportive of the decision, were re-elected.

Polls pointed to a gap between support for the ban and its influence on votes. The Indexa/Broadcast survey found 70% in favour of a ban, yet 63% said it did not affect their choice. Ipsos-Ipec and More in Common found 58% of voters would not vote differently, and Palver reported only 1% considering a change. Datafolha recorded 78% support for the ban on October 1.

Flávio Bolsonaro of the PL advanced to the October 25 runoff against Lula. Murilo Hidalgo, president of Paraná Pesquisas, described the measure as a shot in the foot, especially among fans and teams, and noted that the government had stopped discussing it. The analysis cautions that no available first-round survey demonstrates a causal connection between the ban and the results.