Bernstein sees Robinhood prediction market revenue reaching $1.7B by 2028, ahead of crypto trading

Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani has reiterated a bullish outlook for Robinhood Markets' prediction market business. He expects revenue from event contracts to reach $1.7 billion in 2028, slightly above the $1.6 billion he projects from cryptocurrency trading.

In a report published at the start of the week, Chhugani also raised his overall revenue estimates for the Nasdaq-listed company by 3% for 2026, 4% for 2027 and 3% for 2028. For the current year, he expects event contracts to bring in $650 million. If the forecast proves accurate, the business would more than double in size over the following two years.

The projections come as Robinhood prepares to publish its third-quarter results after US markets close on October 27. The release could offer more detail on how its prediction market offering is performing. According to the report, prediction market revenue exceeded the company's cryptocurrency revenue on a quarterly basis for the first time in the second quarter.

The analyst also sees Coinbase Global benefiting from rising demand for event contracts and derivatives. He forecasts $2 billion in revenue from these products in 2028, compared with an estimated $600 million in 2026, an increase of more than threefold. The category includes derivatives such as perpetual futures, which let traders hold positions without a fixed expiry date. Coinbase offers event contracts through a partnership with a major prediction market operator, and its established crypto business and financial resources could support expansion in a segment where contracts tied to digital assets are among the fastest-growing non-sports categories.

The US prediction market industry remains concentrated among a small number of large operators, although brokerage and cryptocurrency platforms are competing more actively for customers.

Beyond direct trading revenue, prediction markets may help both companies attract new customers who later move to other financial products. Robinhood executives have previously said that some users who start with yes-or-no event contracts go on to trade options and futures or open retirement accounts. The sector's growth will depend on customer demand, trading activity, competition and the regulatory environment.